A probability, not a tip
Every event carries a modelled probability with the evidence that produced it: form, history, and how much of it there actually is.
Probability · Evidence · Price where carried
The evidence behind the number, before you act on it.
BetDNA is analytical software for sport. It builds a calibrated probability for an event from the evidence it actually holds, and shows you the working - including when the honest answer is that it does not know. It compares that probability against a market price wherever one is carried - 11 of 294 fixtures on the 11–16 September board (published for Monday 14 September: 3 days back, 2 ahead) - and makes no value claim where there is none.
- 16 of 19 sportsoffered - 10 with a full replay in the sport’s own mechanics, 6 with a replay on generic mechanics; 3 registered but not offered; 5 on the board’s own day
- 11 of 294 pricedvalue is judged on those; the rest carry no claim · counted over the 11–16 September board
- Zero is an answeran empty day is reported, not filled
The idea
What BetDNA is
Most betting products start with a fixture list and ask you to find something in it. BetDNA starts with a harder question - how likely is this, really, and on what evidence? - and refuses to answer it when it cannot.
Measured against the market where a price is carried
A probability is only useful next to a price. Where BetDNA carries one - 11 of 294 fixtures on the 11–16 September board - it converts the offered odds into an implied probability and compares the two. Where it carries none, nothing is a value claim. The probability itself has been measured against the historical record: 155,079 settled matches, scored as-of.
An honest empty state
If nothing today clears the evidence and price rules, Today shows nothing and says why. That is a result, not a failure. The price rule runs only on fixtures that carry a price.
End to end
How it works
- 1
Events are gathered
Fixtures, participants and results are ingested for every supported sport and reconciled into one canonical view of the day.
- 2
A model produces a probability
Each event gets a probability from the evidence available for that sport. Where the evidence is thin, the model says so rather than guessing.
- 3
The market price is applied where one is carried
The offered odds become an implied probability, and the difference between the two is the only thing that can make a bet worth making. That comparison runs on 11 of 294 fixtures on the 11–16 September board; the rest have no price and get no value verdict.
- 4
Rules decide what survives
Confidence, calibration and value thresholds filter the day down. Most events do not survive, and that is the point. The value threshold runs only where a price is carried.
- 5
You see the working
Whatever reaches Today arrives with its evidence attached, so you can disagree with it on the merits.
The product
What you get
Today
Not every fixture. Today holds only what survives BetDNA’s evidence and product rules - the price rule runs only on fixtures that carry a price, and it is legitimately empty on days that justify nothing.
Sports
The full legitimate picture: every event BetDNA carries, with participants, competition, time, status, statistics and result.
Replay
Watch a match play out in its own sport’s mechanics - a basketball possession, a hockey shot on goal, a cricket over - rather than a recoloured football pitch. Press Replay on any fixture that carries one.
Play
Work through historical events with as-of evidence and historical prices, so you can practise a method against days that have already happened.
Lab
The research surface, opened from search: what was tested, what failed validation, what survived out-of-sample, and what was approved. Frequently nothing is.
See the match, not the scoreline
Theatres
A result is a number. A Theatre is the match. Each sport is played by its own mechanics - possession, shot geometry, restarts, periods - and each one is held to those mechanics by a release gate that has been proven to fail when the sport is played wrongly.
Basketball
Five a side, a motion offence, shots that enter the ring and misses that come off the iron for a rebound.
Ice hockey
A real rink: goal lines eleven feet off the boards, nets, creases, and a puck that has to cross the goal plane between the posts.
Cricket
A run-up for every ball of the over, eleven in the field with a wicketkeeper, and a single that both batters actually run.
Before anything else
Responsible use
BetDNA is a tool for thinking about sport with evidence. It is not a way to win.
It does not accept stakes, it is not a bookmaker, and it does not sell tips. No analytical method removes risk from betting, and money staked on sport can be lost. If betting has stopped being enjoyable, stop, and talk to a support service in your country. 18+.
See what today actually justifies
Create an account and open BetDNA. If it has nothing worth backing today, it will tell you that too.