Probability
A number between 0 and 1 for an outcome happening. BetDNA produces one per event from that sport’s own evidence, not from a single formula stretched across every sport. Glossary
Method
How it works
There is no secret. There is a probability, a price, and a rule about when the gap between them is big enough to matter.
Vocabulary
The four things that decide everything
Confidence
How much evidence stands behind that probability. Two events can share a probability and deserve completely different treatment because one of them is built on almost nothing. Glossary
Implied probability
The market price, converted. Decimal odds of 2.50 imply 40%. This is the number a probability has to disagree with to be worth anything. Glossary
Edge
The gap between the two, after the margin built into the price. A small positive gap on a well-evidenced event is worth more than a large one on a coin-flip. Glossary
These four are defined once, in the glossary, with every other word BetDNA uses precisely.
Evidence
Calibration is the honest test
A model that says 70% should be right about seventy times in a hundred. Not more, not less.
That is the measurement BetDNA holds itself to, and it is deliberately unflattering: it catches a model that is confident and wrong far faster than any profit figure does, because profit can be luck for a long time. Calibration is graded only against forecasts that were made before the event, never reconstructed afterwards.
Where a sport has not yet produced enough graded forecasts to calibrate, that is reported as an absence rather than filled in with an estimate.
Selection
Tiers, and why most events have none
An event only reaches Today if it clears the rules: a legitimate market price exists, the model’s probability disagrees with it by enough, and the evidence behind that probability is sufficient for the tier being claimed. A tier is a statement about strength of case, and a case with no price is not a case at all - so an event without a market price can never be tiered, no matter how confident the model is.
The consequence is that Today is usually short and is sometimes empty. That is the design working, not the product failing.
See what today actually justifies
Create an account and open BetDNA. If it has nothing worth backing today, it will tell you that too.