One definition, one place. How it works cites the first four; the product’s own pages cite the rest.
- Probability
- A number between 0 and 1 for an outcome happening. BetDNA produces one per event from that sport’s own evidence, not from a single formula stretched across every sport.
- Confidence
- How much evidence stands behind that probability. Two events can share a probability and deserve completely different treatment because one of them is built on almost nothing.
- Implied probability
- The market price, converted. Decimal odds of 2.50 imply 40%. This is the number a probability has to disagree with to be worth anything.
- Edge
- The gap between the two, after the margin built into the price. A small positive gap on a well-evidenced event is worth more than a large one on a coin-flip.
- De-vig
- Taking the bookmaker’s margin back out of a set of prices so the implied probabilities add up to one. It is what turns a price into something a probability can be compared with.
- Tier
- Tiers grade the stake by the model’s probability for the pick: Platinum from 78% · Gold from 68% · Silver from 55% · Bronze from 45% · Punt from 38% · below 38%, no stake band. A tier grades the stake; it is not what makes a pick a pick.
- Calibration
- Whether a model that says 70% is right about 70 times in a hundred. Graded only against forecasts made before the event.
- Log loss
- Minus the natural logarithm of the probability the model gave the outcome that happened, averaged over the forecasts. Lower is better; a confident wrong forecast costs far more than a hesitant one.
- As-of
- Graded with only what was known before kick-off. A forecast written after the result, or rewritten with the result in hand, never counts.
- Replay
- A match played out on screen from its real result and timeline. It is not a prediction and it does not change one.
- Board
- The fixtures BetDNA carries for a window of days, every one with BetDNA’s view on it or a stated reason there is none.
- Window
- The days the board covers: 3 back, today, and 2 ahead - 6 days.